Omololu Phillips
The recent global wave of populism have
demystified and unravelled traditional political dynasties and political
parties hegemony including impugning the accuracy of public opinion forecasting
and market research data analytics companies such YouGov, politico, ipsos,pew
etc.
This recent phenomenon have changed the
global political landscape threatening political alliances and transatlantic
cooperation established centuries and decades most notably are the victories of
President Mohammad Buhari in 2015, Brexit, the emergence of Donald Trump, and
recently the election Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.
The rumbustious electioneering by political
parties for the 2019 elections is underway and the candidates nominated by the
political parties are putting everything in place to ensure their success. I
will like to anatomise the major two candidates in the presidential election.
However, it is imperative to capsulize other candidates for the same election
to affirm the values underpinning our democratic evolution and the core
motivation behind exalted aspiration for the office.
This election, like other elections has again
presented us with unspeakable opportunities for transformative leadership with
a heart for service and deep respect for human dignity, a clear vision, exemplary
character, the grit and guile to buck the headwinds and complexities of
governance. The recent emergence of new candidates have created a dichotomy of
euphoria and distress broadly especially with the prevalent uncharacteristic
glib agenda, unprecedented vitriol and muckraking and appalling lack of
identity.
I have carefully and diligently in recent months
researched the profiles of selected candidates creating hype as new entrants in
hope but sadly short-lived and misplaced. You cannot pretend to have the
capacity to change a system without presenting a clear agenda and solutions
different to what the present can offer.
The first new entrant under review is Fela
Durotoye, a putative lodestar without any compelling message or vision which
resonates across our diverse demography to galvanise Interest and stimulate
expectations, seemingly beguiled by shocking transient professional
astroturfing which cannot translate into a national appeal and lacks any hint
of genuine support.
Mr Kingsley Moghalu, another reputable new
entrant has demonstrated brazen disregard for simple obligations with the new
parties’ alliance by refusing to submit himself to the agreement between his
party and others to appoint a consensus candidate to represent them. If you
cannot honour your agreement, then who are you?
Omoyele Sowore, the renowned Sahara
Reporters publisher is rather conflating activism and politics, perhaps
befuddled by his achievement as an activist and hoping pertinent in politics.
He has made repeated sensational statements about increasing the minimum wage
to N 100,000 which is not too much but in reality can Nigeria afford to pay
that now? What are the financial indices on which this assertion was made? What
are the impacts it may have on the economy of the country?
Donald Duke, I have always loved this man
and I would have voted for him in 2007, but he was not given the ticket by the
most flagitious leader of the country Chief Obasanjo. However, he has not demonstrated
sagacity and character worthy of leadership and most recently made a spurious
remark about his income to be only N5.6 million. This claim is a very shameful
falsehood, he should please come up with better joke next time.
Oby Ezekwesili is the prima donna in the
2019 race; she apparently has a quixotic understanding of leadership. She has
presented a fragmented manifesto without a comprehensive outlook relating to
other aspects social, economic and our political culture as a nation. She is
exemplary for prevarication and equivocation on any question relating
corruption under Obasanjo’s administration or personally. Nobody can remember
her impact or the change she brought to the Ministry of Education when she was
a Minister. She is more of an activist and maybe she is better with BBOG team.
The Presidential election is really between
the two major contenders, Muhammadu Buhari of the APC and Atiku Abubakar of the
PDP with an inextricable moral burden of corruption. The questions I will seek
to answer are what are the strength, challenges, weakness, appeal and traction
within the diverse demography represented. I will start with PDP candidate, who
is not a greenhorn but very accustomed to the office as the Vice President
between 1999-2007. The Vice Presidential candidate of the party is Peter Obi,
the former governor of Anambra state, whose greatest achievement is the N75
billion he left in the government treasury after handling over to the present
governor.
The key campaign punchline are the economy
and restructuring, not because he is an economy genius but capitalizing on the
current economic hardship experienced by the people hence the posturing as the
candidate with the alchemy/elixir. Atiku
has presented himself as that person who could bring Nigerians out of their
economic quandary which in itself is disinformation. However, Atiku has not
proposed any economic policy or plan to match his rhetoric or outfox the
current economic recovery and growth plan by the Buhari Administration. In
addition, there are unanswered questions about the role as the head of the
economic team that administered the most egregious privatisation under OBJ.
Another issue is the restructuring of
Nigeria, made a campaign tool by the Director of Atiku campaign Organisation,
Otunba Gbenga Daniel. He is quoted to
remark that “restructuring will be done through executive orders and executive
bills” which affirmed it as mere platitude. The restructuring Nigerians are
yearning for can only be done through painstaking amendments of the 1999
constitution, however, the campaign organisation can bandy the topic as a
supposed effective smoke screen. Apart from the above stated issues the other
focus of Atiku campaign are security and employment which might be an Achilles
heel for any administration due to scale challenges, existing need and
unmanaged expectations.
One other issue this election will be about
is the debt portfolio of Nigeria, which has grown considerably. There is a
perception mostly propagated by the PDP that the Buhari led administration is
responsible for half of the debt. This position was refuted by the Vice
President using the data supplied by Debt Management Office which confirmed the
APC administration only borrowed $10 billion and $28 billion of the amount was
borrowed by the last PDP administration who also had the greatest revenue
generated between 2011-2014. The PDP though had also refuted the claim by the
VP but has not provided any meaningful explanation supported by to data or
facts.
The weaknesses of the Atiku campaign
organisation however, are crystal clear, the Northwest and the Southwest with
the highest number of registered voters are not within the reach of the former
Vice President. There is no living politician more popular than Buhari in that
region. Based on the facts in previous records, he has done well in any
election involving him in that region. Atiku will need more than Kwankwaso to
do well in this region.
In addition, Peter Obi Is allegedly
reported to be inimical to Hausa community during his tenure as the governor of
Anambra which can potentially to further diminish any opportunity of doing well
in the entire Northern Nigeria. There are also claims by Femi Fani Kayode that
Nnamdi Kanu the acclaimed leader of the IPOB will support the PDP against APC.
This will be gravely damaging for the Atiku campaign.
In the Southwest where the impregnable Bola
Tinubu has an undisputed influence, PDP will greatly struggle to get
significant votes here due to the APC absolute control of all the states in the region currently
compared with 2015 when PDP was in charge of Ekiti State. Critics may say that
in the last election in both Osun and Ekiti APC struggled, but nevertheless,
APC will still have the advantage over PDP in these two states eventually.
Another issue that will work against the PDP
is the unprecedented grass root activist membership built by APC in the
South-south and the Southeast. In states such as Akaw Ibom State, APC will
likely win the gubernatorial election and go on to win the presidential elections
due to atrophy eventuated to the structure of the PDP in the state by the high
profile of defections of Akpabio Godwill. This is an emerging trend in most other states in these two regions,
APC will greatly improve on their
previous performance in 2015 when she
was not able to pull more that the 5 percent votes from both regions. The
stronghold of the PDP is ebbing in the north central to the APC which may spell
doom for them during the process If and only if they are willing to maximise
emerging opportunities in this region.
On the other hand Buhari also has his
weaknesses one of which is the fact that the President’s media personnel are
not dominating the narrative to effective tout his achievements in the past
three and a half years.
There is no gain-saying that the president
has made appreciable impact in infrastructures such as rails, roads, airports
and most especially the improvement with the power sector. However, his media
team has not been able to turn these into political gain for him. The media
team needs to come out with cutting edge strategies to galvanise the public
behind him using these laudable milestones especially the Lagos-Abeokuta-Ibadan
railways is the first in the southwest since 1896.
The Buhari administration has made headway
in ensuring we manufacture and produce the things we use as a nation, the focus
on agriculture is yielding great result and will be catastrophic to return our
country to when we only consume what other produce. The President has done well
with security especially the decimation of the Boko haram in the Northeast
where over 13,000 lives were lost under PDP by their own estimation. No matter
what we have seen and the failings of the past three and a half years, Buhari
has done well compared to the previous administration of the PDP.
There is also the use of the media to paint
the President as underperforming in the area of security. The herdsmen and
farmers conflict which has been grossly mismanaged by the presidency has been a
major tool in the hand of the opposition. The truth is that the conflict
predated this administration and it is not peculiar to Nigeria alone, it is a
problem across the West Africa region occasioned by the impact of climate
change.
In the war against corruption, the EFCC has
been more effective under Buhari than any other government. The implementation
of the TSA is also a move in the right direction there is more that has been
done but yet unknown by this government. However, Atiku is not willing to talk
about corruption; as a matter of fact corruption is one of his weakest points. Objectively
it is reasonable to say the presidential election of 2019 is for the APC to
lose, and it can only be measured by what margin the President will win rather
than measuring or calculating on whether he will lose the election.
The APC primaries is one of the greatest
assets of the party, over 14 million votes was recorded for the President.
Initially, when the figures were coming out, I thought they were fictitious
until I saw the pictures especially in Lagos where there were endless queue of
members like in any general election. This means that APC in Lagos has got
almost 1 million foot soldiers to work for them and the same will be replicated
across the country.
Some may argue that but APC are in crisis
in Zamfara, Ogun, and Imo states. The truth is that PDP has got their own
issues too, in states like Ogun, Kano and Sokoto.
I
will conclude on this note that for President Buhari to be alive today is a
miracle and it will only take a miracle to stop him
The 2019 elections will be a memorable one
and I hope it will have indelible impact upon our people.
Phillips, a Legal Practitioner sent this piece
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