While the postponement of the general elections has forced politicians back to the trenches, forcing them to spend more money and at the same time affording them more time to reach out to the electorate, the Number 1 contender for President Goodluck Jonathan’s job, General Muhammadu Buhari and his party, the All Progressives’ Congress are leaving no stone unturned in ensuring that they break the jinx of defeating an incumbent President. The calls for “change” have become so loud across the country that even the Presidency is bothered.
There are some factors that might however work against the ambition of General Buhari and the APC. They include:
The North vs South Factor:
It is an open secret that Buhari may not get bulk votes from the South South and South Eastern part of the country. The South South is the President’s stronghold. The militants and former militants there are poised to do everything to ensure that Dr. Jonathan retains his job. In all fairness, for the very first time, the region is benefitting from policies of the Federal Government. The move was started by President Umar Musa Yar’
Adua and continued by the Goodluck Jonathan administration, it has seen a good number of them trained abroad as pilots while some have become qualified engineers.
A lot are also on monthly stipends; thanks to the Federal Government. And of course, people from the region would very much likely give solidarity votes since someone from another geo-political zone is running against their son.
And before we hurriedly conclude that the whole of the South South, being the President’s stronghold might go along with the PDP, it is worthy of note that within a matter of weeks, APC rallies have been disrupted by gunmen at least twice in Rivers State. That might be an indication that the opposition in Rivers has a strong voice. The PDP too has everything to fight for there; being the home state of the First Lady, Dame Jonathan. Governor Amaechi drew the first blood when he ensured that Hon. Bipi, a loyalist of the Jonathans did not succeed in getting himself enthroned as the Honourable Speaker. To add insult to injury, Amaechi defected to APC and has since been a major antagonist of the PDP.
Whether one likes it or not, former military President, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida is an institution in Nigeria. Though he has never won an election personally, even when he aspired, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar emerged the consensus candidate of the North in 2011 but since December, 1983, there has hardly been a government in Nigeria without Babangida’s hand in it.
Apart from being a part of the Buhari coup that sacked the Shagari administration, he led the one that ousted General Buhari in 1985, set up Chief Ernest Shonekan as the Head of the Interim National Government, not forgetting that he intentionally left General Sani Abacha behind to “watch over” the Shonekan led ING.
Before the emergence of the Interim Government; Babangida had given Nigerians the idea that he would determine who would and who would not rule Nigeria. General Yar’ Adua had a bright chance of emerging as the President back in the 1990s. He was the leading aspirant when all of a sudden; the Babangida administration cancelled the process and called on “New Breed” politicians to come on board.
Unknown to many, Yar’Adua was somehow instrumental to Abiola’s emergence as the presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party back then. Yar’ Adua prevailed on Atiku Abubakar, his favoured candidate to step down for Abiola and he ensured that his Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) helped Abiola against Ambassador Baba Gana Kingibe in the primaries.
Again, Babangida decided that Abiola should not be president.
And after he “stepped aside”, when the two men believed to have held Nigeria to a standstill for four years, General Abacha and Aare Moshood Abiola died within 30 days of each other, Babangida’s cousin, General Abdulsalami Abubakar became Head of State.
Till date, General Babangida is a major stakeholder in Nigeria’s power game and he plays with the charm and experience of a professional.
When Obasanjo was released from prison after Abacha’s death, he obviously had no interest in politics. He said it back then that he wasn’t sure he was the messiah Nigerians were waiting for. It however took a visit by General Babangida to change the Ota farmer’s mind. Of course Babangida was not alone; he carried the likes of Generals Abdulsalami Abubakar, Theophilus Danjuma and Aliyu Mohammed Gusau along in the plot to install Obasanjo as the president.
… And Babangida’s men too
Taking a close look, one would see Babangida’s men around President Goodluck Jonathan. The Minister for Defence, General Aliyu Gusau is one of them; he was instrumental to Buhari’s overthrow of the Shagari administration in December 1983. Buhari however shocked him by removing him from the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI) and appointing Colonel Halilu Akilu as his replacement.
Aliyu was to use his military intelligence experience to assist in the August 27, 1985 sacking of the Buhari/ Idiagbon regime. His loyalty to Babangida seemed to be absolute and his first appointment under IBB was the position of Acting Director General of the National Security Organisation. Under IBB, he served as GOC, 2 Division, Ibadan, Commandant, Nigerian Defence Academy and eventually National Security Adviser.
Colonel Sambo Dasuki, the National Security Adviser, was a former aide de camp to General Babangida. A prince of the Sokoto caliphate, Dasuki’s loyalty to Babangida has never been in doubt. In the Abacha days, he was arrested in connection with an alleged plot to unseat the Commander-in-Chief. He however escaped while he and others were detained. Incidentally, Dasuki had called for the postponement of the polls more than a week before the Independent National Electoral Commission, which had claimed to be ready eventually agreed to postpone the polls.
Unfolding events point in the direction that though the calls for “change” have become louder over time, votes from the South Western part of the country might end up being divided.
The calculation is that in Oyo State, Buhari’s APC will have to contend with the fact that former Governor Ladoja’s party, Accord Party and the Social Democratic Party, SDP will be providing support for the President Jonathan’s second term bid.
In Ondo State, the structure of the PDP has been handed over to Governor Segun Mimiko, who rejoined the party late last year. He will do all in his power to ensure that he delivers his state. There was an exodus of members of the PDP because of Mimiko’s return but one thing that has to be put into consideration is that the members who left were not with him in Labour Party when he defeated the PDP and other parties at the governorship polls in 2012, as such their exit might not do too much damage to the Governor’s political structure.
Governor Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti State has carved the image of the man with the magic wand for himself. It was hitherto unheard of in Nigeria’s political history that a sitting Governor lost without winning a single local government area. Fayose did it against his predecessor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi.
The “magic” that won him the second term as well as the staying power that made him the first person to ever rule Ekiti State twice will again be put to the test on March 28. With the introduction of Stomach Infrastructure which seems to be paying off in the state, the PDP will be counting on Fayose to deliver Ekiti at the presidential polls and if the same tactics that won him the governorship are utilized, Ekiti would go PDP’s way.
The situation in Ogun State has become more interesting. Former President Obasanjo has never hidden his disdain for Dr. Jonathan’s style of leadership. The peak of it was his open endorsement of General Buhari and his subsequent destruction of his PDP membership card. While it is obvious that the former President favours the APC, the party has lots of battles to face at the elections. The PDP seems to have put the clash that accounted for its poor showing in 2011 behind it. Prince Buruji Kashamu, Otunba Gbenga Daniel and Gboyega Nasir Isiaka are all back under one umbrella and to make matters worse for Governor Amosun, his clash with Aremo Olusegun Osoba forced the latter to become the power broker in the Social Democratic Party. The National Leadership of the SDP has adopted Dr. Jonathan as its presidential candidate, in other words, votes from Osoba and his supporters that should ordinarily have gone to Buhari and the APC will go to PDP.
The only place where the APC will have it smooth is Osun State where Governor Aregbesola has proved to be in charge. There is also a big battle for the soul of Lagos State with the likes of Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, Chief Olabode George and others giving it their all.
Though he has been to the South East to campaign, it is easy to assume that majority of those in the geo-political zone will not go with the APC. Traditionally, Igbos have an offensive distrust for Hausas. That has been the situation since the 1966 counter coup and for them, the Civil War proved to be a pain in all senses. Even those whose parents were young then are still carrying the disgust. The bulk of the votes there are therefore expected to be in favour of the PDP.
Another place where there might be some elements of surprise is the North West. It should not be forgotten that Katsina, Buhari’s home state is being governed by the PDP. The Governor there is pro Jonathan to the core. Back in 2011 when the president was in Katsina to campaign, the Governor’s convoy was involved in a crash in which his ADC and 4 others died, yet Governor Ibrahim Shema limped to the campaign ground. The PDP will be counting on him to deliver.
It is an open secret that Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is the one calling the shots in Kano State but the PDP too can boast of having Shekarau, a Minister who also has a broad base. Kano’s voting population is in excess of 4 million. It will likely be shared, though unevenly as the APC seems to have the upper hand.
Alhaji Sule Lamido might not have a choice than to deliver Jigawa. It looked like he had his eyes on the presidential seat and had once been endorsed by Obasanjo. He had moved with the aggrieved Governors who formed the new PDP just before the alliance that birthed the APC came to be. He however had a rethink after his son’s conviction for money laundering. Some say he was cowed into submission. The issue remains something must have been on the table and presently, Lamido is with the PDP. He is also one of those who believe PDP still needs Obasanjo.
In a similar fashion to Lamido, Dr. Babangida Aliyu suddenly retraced his steps and aligned with the President. He was the first to bring up the issue of a “single-term pact”. He suddenly changed gear and he is one of the leading voices in the “Second Term” song. The truth of the matter is Governor Aliyu may not want to put himself in the danger of wandering too far from the powers that be in Niger State: the Babangidas and Abubakars of this world.
The North East is where the President might not be expecting so much. Incidentally, a lot of voters there have been displaced. The postponement of the polls notwithstanding, many voters may not take the risk of going out on Election Day except there is assurance that the insurgents troubling the region have been totally subdued.
The Buhari candidature may also not be well favoured in some places in the North Central. Votes will be shared as most places in the North Central might vote along ethnic lines and if that happens, the anti-Fulani sentiments in Benue, Plateau and other places could be a major factor. Kwara is however likely to stand out for the APC with the Bukola Saraki clout and Governor Abdulfattah MaigidaAhmed who have become the faces of the APC in the state.
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