Oyo 2015: The Candidates, Their Chances




Most of the citizens in Oyo State have an idea of the type of Governor they desire. The qualities of the preferred candidate for the job, as expressed by some members of the electorate include fairness to all, cool headedness, a good track record and of course, a good public image.
The ideal Governor, in the opinion of some citizens must possess all the attributes of a genuine omoluabi; (a well behaved and upright person). To those who believe in dynamism, the man who would rule Oyo State must be someone who cannot be cowed into submission, should be one whose victory would not be orchestrated by a godfather or godfathers, must be someone who is not scandal scarred and a man that can be trusted not to betray public trust. The ideal man for the job must also prove to the electorate that he is up to the task. People would gladly follow someone that they are sure would hit the ground running and develop the state.
The Naira factor is another part of the race that cannot be wished away. People want a Governor that has touched lives; and the only evidence of that lies in how buoyant the candidate is, to execute projects that people can point to, or do things that can be referred to.

Interestingly, the 2015 Oyo State governorship race is made of three men who have been in the Governor’s Office and if one decides to look at it from another angle; three of the contestants have been inside the upper legislative arm of government as Distinguished Senators of the Federal Republic.
In this piece, WOLE ADEJUMO weighs the chances of the candidates of the different parties.

Senator Abiola Ajimobi: While opponents are deploying every possible facility to ensure they unseat Senator Ajimobi, the present Governor of Oyo State is relying on the support of the people of the state based on his achievements in the last 3 years and a few months in office to win him a second term as the state’s Chief Executive.
History has never been kind to incumbent Governors in Oyo State at the polls; Chief Bola Ige, Alhaji Lam Adesina, Senator Rashidi Ladoja and Otunba Alao Akala have all tasted the bitter pill of defeat at the governorship election. Governor Ajimobi’s supporters are however exercising a strong belief that Akanji, as the Governor is now lovingly called might as well be the jinx breaker. They are always quick to point to the peaceful atmosphere across the state.
In all fairness, under Ajimobi, the persistent crisis that became a characteristic feature of the National Union of Road Transport Workers was managed well and apart from the few pockets of violence that trailed recent electioneering campaigns in a few places, the state has enjoyed peace in the last three years.
In the state capital, the presence of the government is felt in various spheres; unlike years past when refuse littered most parts of Ibadan, the Ajimobi administration has been given a pass mark in terms of keeping the state clean.
One of the attempts at fostering development was seen as the undoing of his administration; the forced relocation of roadside traders. That has however been defended by those who opined that Governor Ajimobi provided alternatives through the building of new markets. They also took time to explain that the move was made to secure lives and property and that the traders were not relocated in the real sense of it but were asked to shift off the roads. The YES-O scheme too became an issue, especially with youths who complained about the “scrapping” of the programme. Government sources revealed that it is being reorganized but people are of the opinion that nothing might change.
The demise of the Aare Arisekola Alao is still seen by many as a major setback to Governor Ajimobi’s second term bid. Aare Alao was the last godfather in his category. As it stands in Oyo State today, there is hardly anyone who can put a billion Naira down just to prevent a candidate from winning an election. It may however not be wrong to assume that the last four years is more than enough time to build a political war chest as he has assumed the position of the godfather in the APC in Oyo State.
It is also to his advantage that the primaries of the PDP left most aspirants aggrieved with a number of them seeking other parties’ tickets, thus depleting the membership of the party. With that, the biggest contender would be Senator Ladoja’s Accord Party which has had a solid structure for some years.

Senator Rashidi Ladoja
As the Ashipa Olubadan of Ibadanland, Senator Ladoja is about seven spaces away from becoming the Olubadan. He is a man who has seen it all. He was a Senator in the botched Third Republic and he became Governor in 2003, after flooring Lam Adesina at the polls. One of the things that people in the state have not forgotten is how Senator Ladoja was almost consumed by the tiger on whose back he rode to power in 2003. Barely a year after he was sworn –in, he and his then godfather, High Chief Adedibu started a political war of sort and before long, it became a physical war in which lives were lost.
Though he did not find his 3 years and one month in office enjoyable, civil servants, especially teachers fell in love with him for his insistence on prompt payment of salaries and allowances of the state's work force.
Another feat that his name cannot be taken away from is the start of the 30 students per class programme, aimed at reducing the student-teacher ratio in order to develop the state educationally.
When Ladoja floated Accord Party, months to the 2011 general elections he looked like a comedian. Some of those who laughed at him then have however joined the party. The party won seats in the House of Assembly and the Federal House of Representatives. Accord Party has grown stronger since then and the party can boast of a serving senator. With the While many continue to ask why Ladoja, who is in his 70s wants to run the state again, his followers insist he is the best man for the job.
With his belief that when compared with other candidates who have ruled the state before, his administration is head and shoulders above them, he is no doubt a front runner in the contest.
But while many term his administration as one of the most prudent in the state, especially those who remember that he fell out with his godfather over his refusal to give him a quarter of his N 60 million monthly security votes, the Ladoja administration is going into the race with a moral burden. Towards the tail end of his administration, shares belonging to the state were sold and how the monies that accrued were expended became a legal issue. There were insinuations recently that part of the funds had been secretly refunded into the government’s account.

Otunba Alao Akala
Otunba Alao-Akala is a true example of the fact that there are no permanent friends or foes in politics. While strategizing for a comeback to the Government House, Agodi, and before he eventually left the PDP to pick the governorship ticket of the Labour Party, several meetings were reportedly held, including some with his former boss, Senator Ladoja who once likened him to “Judas Iscariot”. He also reportedly met with Governor Abiola Ajimobi before the Labour Party decision was arrived at.
Otunba Akala became the Governor when he suddenly found himself as a beneficiary of the feud between High Chief Adedibu and the Governor. His first 11 months were spent trying to get acceptance. He however won in 2011 and landmarks of his 4-year-term included infrastructural development. Ogbomoso holds him in high esteem, not just for being a son, but in recognition of the hospital his administration built there. Major roads across the state also received attention during his time, with some of them being dualized.
His choice of party is hinged on the belief that his personality and some political ground work here and there will deliver the votes. Otunba Akala might not be wrong as he once contested a local council poll as an independent candidate and won yet another as candidate of a less favoured party.
Many believe he went into the race mainly to prove a point to the PDP, especially because of the way the party’s governorship primaries went. Long before the primaries, one his close allies, Senator Hosea Ayoola had teamed up with Senator Folarin to take over the structure of the party. As such, the calculation being posited in some quarters is that Akala will get most of the votes in Ogbomoso, which has the second largest voting population after Ibadan and thus act as spoilsport for some candidates who might be banking on votes from Ogbomoso to boost their chances.  And with some Ibadan elements behind him and his running mate, who was Secretary to the State Government in Ladoja’s era, they will further divide votes that will come from Ibadan. In other words, candidates of Ibadan extraction must look elsewhere, other than Ibadan and Ogbomoso for bulk votes that could place them at an advantage over opponents.

Senator Teslim Kola Folarin
Senator Folarin is flying the flag of the PDP and he is entering the race with experience as a two-time Senator of the Federal Republic and former Majority Leader in the Senate. Having been schemed out of the governorship primaries of his party in 2011, Senator Folarin braced up ahead of most others and got control of the PDP structure in the state.
At the conclusion of the primaries that produced Folarin, Otunba Alao-Akala, Engr. Seyi Makinde and Elder Wole Oyelese left with their supporters. The others, like Prof Soji Adejumo, Alhaji Hazeem Gbolarumi, Alhaji Kehinde Olaosebikan  among others have been pacified and that is expected to give the party a boost; though its ranks have been depleted by the exit of Akala and Makinde.
The party has since moved on and is firing its campaign on full throttle. Senator Folarin is matching Governor Ajimobi billboard for billboard. Observers have however opined that the PDP as a party has to do extra hard work to sell its governorship candidate. Checks have revealed that not many people like the political style of the former Senate Leader, especially those in his immediate constituency. His neighbours who had to endure a bad portion of road were further irked when he answered a question during a radio debate recently as regards why he did not fix the road. His response, ‘‘you know road construction costs a lot of money and I don’t have that money”, was termed ‘not good enough’ by some residents of Oluyole Estate.
It is a common saying around Ibadan and environs that only a very few people benefitted anything from him when he was Senate Leader.
To those who say “Tesi is too thrifty to be a politician” however, the PDP candidate’s supporters have come out to say he is a whole new man of depth and maturity now.
One of the focal points of his campaign is the actualization of Ibadan State, which is something most Ibadan indigenes are looking forward to.

Engr. Seyi Makinde
At 47, Engineer Makinde is about the youngest of the lot. And he is one of the few that have never held public office among the candidates. In 2003 and 2007, he operated from the background, providing strategic support towards the governorship election. He contested in the 2007 general election for the Oyo South Senatorial District and contested in the PDP primaries for the same position in 2011.
Like Alao-Akala, he too left the PDP after the shadow election which almost all the aspirants agreed was ill-conducted.  His movement is fast transforming the fortune of the Social Democratic Party, which was last heard of in the state when Chief Kolapo Ishola left office as Governor in November 1993. His exit and those of other aggrieved aspirants will definitely affect the fortunes of the PDP in the governorship election as the votes that would have been garnered by the party will have to be shared between PDP, Labour Party and SDP.
The party now enjoys large followership and just like Accord Party started months before the 2011 polls with Senator Ladoja as the face of the party, Engr. Makinde is the face of the SDP in Oyo State.
His age is being used to advantage, as he seems to be winning the admiration of the younger generation of people in the state. Though with a new party, winning the governorship is a serious task, those in the political class believe it can be done.
His followers too believe he has done enough to that he is a good material for the job. He initiated a youth empowerment programme back in 2006. He also has a style of responding to needs of the people ahead of other candidates. He did it with free bus services when Apete was ravaged by a flood years ago and he performed a similar feat after a fire outbreak at Alashinloye Market in Ibadan. After assessing the damage, he mobilized engineers to site to sink a borehole. The Local council however moved in shortly after. While Makinde can pull a large number of surprise votes in Ibadan, his choice of running mate has also been seen as an added advantage to his aspiration. Alhaji Suleiman Adediran was the Chairman of Irepo Local Government Area and he knows the Oke Ogun axis well.
 There is also a school of thought that believes things might swing in Makinde’s favour going by the fact that the others have governed the state and people have seen their strengths and weaknesses, the electorate might decide to give Makinde a chance.

Taiwo Otegbeye
But for Taiwo Ibiyemi Otegbeye’s decision to discontinue with the case he and his Action Alliance instituted after the 2011 poll, the election that produced Governor Abiola Ajimobi would have been nullified. Otegbeye’s name was omitted on the list of candidates at polling units back then.  
Not long after, he was named as the Commissioner for Information and Orientation. The appointment was largely seen as a payback for allowing Mr. Governor’s victory to stand. Meanwhile, it also served as a good PR shot for the Ajimobi administration as Otegbeye never renounced his AA membership.
Now, Otegbeye is back in the race. Incidentally, he is one of the candidates only a few would give any chance. Unlike the candidates of the other parties, Otegbeye is rarely seen and the financial status of his party, Action Alliance is fast becoming a subject of discussion. Checks have revealed that Mr. Otegbeye has not printed any new poster; rather, the remaining posters from the 2011 elections are the ones being pasted around the state capital. Cardboard markers were simply used to change the “1” in 2011 to “5”. Action Alliance also has no visible billboard of its governorship and presidential flag bearers in any strategic location in the state capital. The party has also not held any mega rally or campaign.

Laide Olayiwola
Mr. Olayiwola, the candidate of the little known Kowa Party is known more as a businessman. He runs a hotel and a group of schools in Ibadan. The party is believed to be using the 2015 polls to test the waters while warming up for future elections.

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