How The Race Will Go
With just four months to go, the race for the Agodi
Government House is fast gathering momentum. The contenders include both
seasoned and green politicians, thus giving the race a shade of different
colours.
A number of factors that may affect the overall outcome of
the race have been noticed.
First is the death of Aare Abdulazeez Arisekola Alao, who
many agree was the last godfather will no doubt have its effect on the
political class. Though Aare himself was not a card carrying member of any
political party, yet since the Second Republic, politicians have courted him
and he was a rallying point. He was the type of man that could put down a
billion Naira to support a candidate he believes in.
With his demise, a void has been created. There is hardly a
philanthropist in Oyo State that would invest so much in any politician like
Aare did.
The Triple P Factor
The list of things that will determine who emerges as the
Governor of Oyo State will be incomplete without a mention of the personality,
party and performance of the aspirants.
Performance and personality played a major role in the Osun
and Ekiti governorship elections. A repeat should be expected in Oyo and Ogun
States; the only states where governors would be elected in 2015.
The party effect too cannot be ruled out. Some parties
already have added advantages. For instance, the All Progressives Congress and
Accord Party have already endorsed candidates and as such, they have a longer
time to prepare ahead of other parties who are still shopping for the right
candidates.
With the exit of the godfathers, the level of performance
recorded either in the offices they have held previously or what they have been
able to do to touch the people will go a long way in speaking for the aspiring
governors.
Money too is a factor that cannot be wished away from
politics. Apart from “touching” the delegates who would determine the fate of
the aspirants at party level, Oyo State is made up 33 Local Government Areas in
which each has to make his presence felt. Though many will rely on the party
machinery, the truth is that any aspirant that is not willing to spend might as
well kiss the party ticket goodbye.
The Ibadan factor also has a role in Oyo State politics,
especially the governorship. The capital city is made up of 11 Local Government
Areas and so the bulk of the votes in the state will come from Ibadan. So
Ibadan is a place where the candidates strive to win, knowing full well that
whoever gets the support of Ibadan is at an advantage.
The Aspirants At A
Glance
Senator Abiola
Ajimobi: The incumbent Governor of Oyo State is the man many are jostling
to unseat. In terms of governorship elections, he has seen it all. He had his
first shot in 2007 as the candidate of the All Nigerian Peoples Party and lost
to Otunba Alao-Akala.
He came back in 2011 with renewed vigour to floor Akala. It
is to his advantage that his party has a settled house. There is hardly any
dissenting voice about his candidature and as far as the All Progressives
Congress is concerned, as a sitting governor, he is the best material they
have.
In terms of performance, he has been able to change the face
of the state especially with his “infrastructural development” programme which
saw his administration building a bridge in Mokola, Ibadan. Some of his
projects have however been criticized. His opponents have been using those to
advantage and whenever a flaw is noticed, it becomes a campaign point for the
opposition.
It may however not be rosy all the way for Governor Ajimobi,
his party lost the two Senators it had in the state with Adeseun leaving for
PDP and Lanlehin moving to Accord Party. Apart from having governorship
ambitions, both men had issues with the governor.
One other indicator to the fact that despite being in power,
the Governor is not comfortable is the fact that he has not conducted Local
Government elections, with seven months to end his tenure. The council polls
would have been a test of popularity as well as an opportunity to tie up any
loose end that might show up. Such preventive maintenance could guard against
embarrassment at the general election.
Interestingly, late conduct of local government elections
has always been the undoing of Oyo Governors since Lam Adesina; alas, none of
them ever won a second term.
Otunba Adebayo
Alao-Akala
The immediate past Governor of Oyo State, Otunba Alao-Akala
is one of those at the forefront of the Oyo 2015 race. Till date, he is the
longest serving Governor the state has ever had, having ruled for a total of 4
years and 11 months. His strength lies in the structure he has maintained since
the days he contested and won a chairmanship seat on the platform of the All
Peoples Party, APP, a party that was given very little chance in 1998.
The fact that he might have a tedious job of convincing
“Abuja” that he is the candidate to support notwithstanding, he is one of the
top contenders for the PDP ticket.
A minus for his ambition is the exit of his erstwhile ally,
Senator Hosea Agboola from his camp. Agboola has joined forces with Senator
Teslim Folarin, who is also in the race. Also, Akala’s kinsman, Senator Ayo
Adeseun has thrown his cap in the ring; thus signaling readiness to tackle the
former Governor from his Ogbomoso stronghold.
Otunba Alao-Akala is approaching the governorship race with
a burden as he is still being prosecuted by the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission. The fact that Ayo Fayose, a former Governor of Ekiti who was in a
similar circumstance won the election in Ekiti will serve as a morale booster
for him.
Senator Teslim
Folarin
The former Senate Leader is believed to have a large
influence on the party structure of the PDP in Oyo State. That belief has
however become a matter of debate.
The high point of his senatorial career was when he moved
the motion that made Dr. Goodluck Jonathan the Acting President.
Though he is well connected in Abuja and other parts of the
country, many believe that on a level playing field, it will be tough for him
to emerge with the number of experienced aspirants on the PDP field.
He has set his machinery in motion and is reaching out to
all areas of the state. Incidentally, some of those he is consulting with have
expressed surprise at his new conduct. To them, the “new Folarin” is much
better and humbler than the one that served as Senate Leader.
Meanwhile, an assumption that is fast gaining ground in
Ibadan is that if Folarin wins the PDP primaries, the ruling party will have
reasons to rejoice as it may be a “walkover”. One other thing PDP members keep
asking themselves is whether Senator Folarin knows the use of money in
politics.
Senator Rashidi
Adewolu Ladoja
At 70, the Ashipa Olubadan of Ibadanland is the oldest man
in the race. His Accord Party shocked many during the 2011 elections and since
then, the party has grown stronger. A Senator in Oyo State recently dumped the
APC to team up with the Ladoja-led party.
Only a few people expect Accord Party to win the
governorship poll but it is obvious that Ladoja is in the race to prove a
point. He is one man every Ibadan indigene that emerges as the flag bearer of
his party must be wary of.
Ladoja might end up playing spoilsport as his candidature
will definitely split votes from Ibadan, thus tactically working in favour of
another party.
What no one seems to understand is why Accord Party will not
filed a younger candidate.
Engr. Seyi Makinde
Engr. Makinde is the youngest of the aspirants in the PDP. Born in 1967,
the University of Lagos trained engineer worked with Shell Petroleum
Development Company and Rebold International Limited after which he started his
Makon Group, a player in the oil and gas sector.
Though it is his first shot at the governorship position,
Makinde has contested twice for the Oyo South senatorial seat, first in 2007
and in 2011.
A philanthropist of note, Makinde seems to have garnered
political knowledge over the years. He has a solid structure and he is one of
the top contenders that have shown signs of seriousness in the PDP. He seems to
know how to give the APC something to worry about.
He surprised many when he donated buses to convey people
from Apete where a flood almost cut the community off from the remaining part
of Ibadan. His buses had already started operating before the government moved
in with buses.
He did it again when a section of the Alashinloye Market was
gutted by fire. Makinde visited the place and promised to drill a borehole. His
engineers moved promptly to site only to be driven away on the orders of the
chairman of the Local Government.
His youthful and upbeat image is the only thing that has
generated comments as to whether he will be able to run the state. He has
however responded that world leaders like Barack Obama, David Cameron and
Vladimir Putin started leading their people in their 40s and back home, the
likes of Generals Yakubu Gowon and Murtala Mohammed led Nigeria before they
turned 40.
Senator Ayo Adeseun
Senator Adeseun earned himself the sobriquet “Ayo Solar”
when his constituents started feeling his presence via solar powered projects
like street lights and boreholes.
In Ogbomoso, he is a grassroots mobilizer and he is such a
man that if he is against you, you cannot sleep with two eyes closed.
He moved from the APC to PDP after openly stating that
Governor Ajimobi does not listen to advice. One of the men who should be
bothered by his defection and interest in the governorship race is former
Governor Akala.
With both Ogbomoso men in the race, it means votes from the
area would be shared at the primaries. The good part however is that they have
both agreed to support whoever emerges at the end of the day.
Prof. Soji Adejumo
Adejumo, who comes from a line of Anglican priests, is
obviously not new in politics. His entry dates back to the Constituent Assembly
convened by President Ibrahim Babangida in 1988, he represented Ibadan Central
Constituency at the assembly.
He later served as Consultant on the Mass Mobilisation for
Social and Economic Reforms, MAMSER. In The botched Third Republic, he was
Governor Kolapo Ishola’s Special Adviser on Agriculture and Food Production
after which he was made the Executive Director of the Directorate of Food,
Roads and Rural Infrastructure in Oyo State. He left indelible marks as the
Chairman of the State Universal Basic Education Board.
What he has going for him is his rich qualification and
unblemished record in service. Those may however not be enough to endear him to
the delegates who will determine who flies the PDP flag at the general
election.
Engr. Femi Babalola
Known more as an Engineer and consultant than a politician, Jogor, as Babalola is fondly called is
one of the untested men in the race. He has never contested for any elective
post before. And within his party, lots of people are of the opinion that he should
have tried another position.
His closeness to Otunba Alao-Akala also gives his guber
ambition the coloration of “a project within a project”. He handled most of the
projects done by the Akala administration and both are being prosecuted by the
EFCC. It will not come as a surprise if he eventually throws his weight behind
Akala. He is apparently in the race to play the spoiler’s role.
Alhaji Azeem
Gbolarumi
The scion of the Olugbesan family is in the race for the
second consecutive time, having aspired for the same position in 2011.
The one time Deputy Governor never really posed a major threat
to any of the contenders back in 2011. The story may not be too different in
2014. Though with the structure he has, whoever emerges will court him and
things will be resolved on the bargaining table.
Alhaji Isiaka Kehinde
Olaosebikan
Olaosebikan has been
through a lot in politics. After serving as Chief Press Secretary to Governor
Lam Adesina, he contested for a House of Reps seat in 2003. Not long after the
loss, a crisis engulfed the Alliance for Democracy and Olaosebikan and some
young turks were pitched against the leadership of the party in Oyo State.
He later won a Local Government election but he was not
allowed to sit in the office for a day. Thanks to the clash between the then “Strongman
of Ibadan politics” and his godson.
The following administration appointed him as a caretaker
chairman. He is one of the surprises of the primary elections; though he is
believed to be working hand in glove with some aspirants. He might fuse his
structure into that of one of the leading contenders on the day of the shadow
election.
Professor Taoheed
Adedoja
His administrative experience is unrivaled. Apart from being
the former Provost of the College of Education (Special), Oyo, he has served in
various other capacities, including the Commissioner of Education, Chairman of
the State Universal Basic Education Board, Minister of State for Education and
also the Minister of Sports. Adedoja flew the flag of the Action Congress in
the 2007 governorship election. He was picked as the party’s candidate shortly
after he decamped from the PDP.
By 2011, he was back in the PDP. Prof is back in the guber
race and his governorship ambition has come under criticism especially by those
in doubt of the sincerity of the highly technical educationist. Some have
raised suspicions that he is an agent of the opposition in the PDP.
Dr. Ayobami Lam-Adesina
Just like a lone voice crying in the wilderness, little
known Dr. Adesina seems to be the only person interested in a primary election
in the Oyo State chapter of the All Progressives Congress.
His ambition is not only being taken with a pinch of salt
but also being read more as a recognition seeking venture and a move that might
not amount to much. Perhaps he needs to be reminded of history, that in the “progressive”
setting, primaries usually take the consensus form.
His ambition will also likely pitch him against his younger
brother who is a serving commissioner in the Ajimobi administration.
Comments
Post a Comment